Russian 'Hypersonic' Oreshnik Missile Launch on Ukraine: A Strategic Message to NATO

On November 21, Russia launched the Oreshnik missile against the PA Pivdenmash facility in Ukraine, introducing a previously unknown threat to NATO. The U.S. received advance notice of the strike, showcasing Russia's strategic signaling amidst escalating tensions.

P24 News Media

November 23, 2024

1 minute

Russian 'Hypersonic' Oreshnik Missile Launch on Ukraine: A Strategic Message to NATO

India

On the morning of November 21, Russia executed a missile strike on the PA Pivdenmash facility located in Dnipro, eastern Ukraine, utilizing a medium-range missile dubbed Oreshnik. This missile was shrouded in secrecy until its operational demonstration against Ukraine, surprising Western analysts and military experts alike.

In a notable move, Russian officials provided the United States with a brief advance notice about the impending missile launch. Sabrina Singh, Deputy Spokesperson for the Defense Department, confirmed that the U.S. received word through nuclear risk reduction channels just prior to the attack, with a 30-minute warning timestamp.

Curiously, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov corroborated the advance notice, reinforcing the notion that this strike was both a planned event and a strategic message. Prior to the launch, the U.S. had informed Ukraine and its allies of potential tests involving such experimental weaponry.

The Oreshnik missile was launched from the Astrakhan region near the Caspian Sea, covering an extensive distance of approximately 1,000 kilometers amidst a broader offensive comprising missile and drone assaults targeting central Ukraine. Reports indicate that a U.S. official confirmed an alert was issued to Ukraine, advising of possible weapon deployment during the attack.

Speculations surrounding the Oreshnik missile suggest it is a mobile, solid-fueled missile with an operational range spanning between 2,500-3,000 to 5,500 km, equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) that can reach hypersonic speeds of up to Mach 10.

The U.S. Department of Defense has indicated that the Oreshnik missile derives from the RS-26 Rubezh design, known for its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities. The RS-24 Yars ICBM, from which the Oreshnik is developed, is capable of carrying MIRVs or employing the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle.

Russia has strategically incorporated the Avangard as part of its hypersonic arsenal, designed for delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads at extraordinary speeds, reaching Mach 20 and performing evasive maneuvers to bypass active missile defenses. While the RS-26 underwent testing between 2011 and 2015, it was not included in Russia's State Armament Program from 2018 to 2027. Its current operational status remains uncertain.

There is speculation that the Oreshnik may be a modernized derivative of the Soviet-era RSD-10 Pioneer intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which played a significant role in strategic negotiations during the Cold War. The RSD-10 had a remarkable range of 6000 km and was removed from service post-INF Treaty. Recent geopolitical shifts, particularly following the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019, may have prompted Russia's renewed focus on developing the Oreshnik missile.

Putin, in a televised statement, hailed the strike as a successful demonstration of the Oreshnik's capabilities. He attributed the missile attack to Ukraine's recent military actions utilizing U.S. and British weaponry within Russian territory. The Russian President affirmed that Russia reserves the right to retaliate against nations supplying arms used against it.

The targeted facility in Ukraine was reportedly involved in the production of short and medium-range missiles for U.S. forces. Putin emphasized that the Oreshnik missile's hypersonic speeds render current air defense systems ineffective, raising alarm over the implications for NATO and allied defensive postures in Europe.

A U.S. military official commented on the limited inventory of Oreshnik missiles, suggesting that Russia may only possess a select few of these experimental systems. However, the official acknowledged Ukraine's resilience in withstanding a diverse array of assaults from Russia.

Recent analyses from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) indicate that Russia is ramping up its production of solid-propellant rocket motors, dispelling assumptions regarding the limited operational capacity of the Oreshnik missile.

Conjectures about the strike's effectiveness vary, yet strategic observers assert that the Oreshnik attack conveys a distinct and calculated message from Moscow. Analysts like Ruslan Pukhov affirm that it was not an act of provocation toward the U.S., but rather a demonstration of Russia’s resolve and strategic capabilities. The Oreshnik missile launch serves as a reminder that while militaristic posturing continues, it also highlights a complex landscape of geopolitical caution and military strategy. This incident is indicative of the ongoing tension between NATO and Russia, exemplifying the delicate balance of power and the potential for escalation amidst the modern warfare paradigm.