India's Surprising Pivot: Why It's Reaching Out to the Taliban Now

India's recent diplomatic engagement with the Taliban marks a significant change in its approach to regional geopolitics, reflecting a new pragmatism in addressing evolving dynamics and the realities of governance in Afghanistan.

More than three years have passed since India faced a significant strategic and diplomatic setback following the Taliban's takeover of Kabul. The considerable efforts invested over two decades in fostering Afghanistan’s democratic infrastructure—through military assistance, educational scholarships, and monumental initiatives such as the construction of a new parliament—were quickly dismantled. This sudden collapse not only diminished India's foothold in the region but also allowed neighboring rivals, notably Pakistan and China, to expand their influence, creating new security challenges for India.

However, a notable shift occurred last week when Vikram Misri, India's leading diplomat, met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting foreign minister of the Taliban, in Dubai. This meeting marked the highest level of diplomatic engagement between India and the Taliban since the latter's resurgence in power. The Taliban articulated a desire to enhance political and economic relations with India, referring to it as a "significant regional and economic power." Reports suggest that discussions centered on improving trade and exploring the potential of leveraging Iran's Chabahar port, a strategic location India has been investing in to circumvent Pakistani ports like Karachi and Gwadar.

This meeting's significance cannot be understated. According to Michael Kugelman from the Wilson Center, a prominent American think tank, India’s interaction with the Taliban effectively grants the group the legitimacy it has sought on the global stage since regaining power. "The fact that this treatment is coming from India—a country that historically has not maintained friendly relations with the Taliban—adds further weight to the meeting and represents a diplomatic victory for the Taliban," he stated.

Considering the backdrop of the meeting, Pakistani airstrikes resulting in numerous casualties just days prior highlighted the ongoing tensions in the region. Since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan, nations have adopted diverse strategies regarding their engagement with the regime, balancing diplomatic relations while grappling with issues related to human rights and security. For instance, China has taken a bold approach, actively engaging with the Taliban to explore mutual security and economic interests, even appointing an ambassador to the country.

While no country has officially recognized the Taliban government, around 40 nations maintain some level of diplomatic or informal contact with it. This situation leads experts like Jayant Prasad, a former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, to adopt a more cautious perspective regarding India's outreach. For three years, India has kept channels of communication open with the Taliban through its diplomatic service. After shutting down its consulates during the Afghan civil war in the 1990s, India reopened them in 2002 post-conflict, signaling a desire not to repeat past mistakes. Prasad notes, "We didn't want this hiatus to develop again, so we wanted to engage. It is simply a step up in relations."

In 2023, India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar emphasized the country’s "historical and civilizational ties" with Afghanistan. Over the years, India has committed more than $3 billion to over 500 projects in Afghanistan, encompassing roads, power infrastructure, healthcare facilities, and educational initiatives. Additionally, India has trained numerous Afghan officers and granted scholarships to thousands of students, reflecting a longstanding engagement that transcends political regimes. As highlighted by The Indian Express, "irrespective of the nature of the regime in Kabul—whether monarchical, communist, or Islamist—there exists an inherent warmth between Delhi and Kabul."

Kugelman concurs with this view, asserting that India’s legacy as a donor of development and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan has fostered significant goodwill among the Afghan populace, a sentiment India is keen to preserve. Interestingly, the tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan appear to be creating an environment conducive to improved relations with India. Pakistan has accused the Afghan government of harboring elements of the hardline Pakistani Taliban (TTP), and given this backdrop, the engagement with the Taliban could be strategically beneficial for India.

In July, while discussing counterterrorism efforts, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that Pakistan would continue its operations against Afghanistan. This comes amidst reports of Pakistani airstrikes that purportedly killed many in eastern Afghanistan, which the Taliban condemned as violations of its sovereignty. Such developments illustrate the decline in relations since the Taliban's ascendance in 2021, during which a senior Pakistani intelligence officer was among the first foreign officials to visit the Taliban regime.

While Pakistan is certainly a driving force behind India’s renewed engagement with the Taliban, Kugelman emphasizes that Delhi's move toward the Taliban presents a notable achievement in its ongoing rivalry with Pakistan. Furthermore, India aims to bolster its connectivity to Central Asia—an objective complicated by Pakistan's refusal to allow transit rights. Experts assert that Afghanistan plays a vital role in this strategy, particularly regarding collaborations with Iran on developing the Chabahar port to facilitate access to Central Asia.

As Kugelman points out, "It is easier for Delhi to concentrate on the Afghanistan aspect of this plan by developing closer ties with the Taliban leadership, which supports India’s initiatives as they would enhance Afghanistan’s own trade and connectivity." India's recent diplomatic overtures aim to safeguard its core interests in a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan: mitigating potential terrorism threats, deepening ties with Iran and Central Asia, nurturing public goodwill through aid, and countering a beleaguered Pakistan.

Nevertheless, there are inherent risks associated with strengthening ties with the Taliban. Kugelman warns that the Taliban, known for its violent history and affiliations with various terror groups, poses a significant challenge. Despite any hopes that engagement might lead to a less adversarial stance toward India, the fundamental question remains: Can one trust an entity like the Taliban? This complex relationship will undoubtedly keep India navigating a precarious path.

Conversely, Prasad remains optimistic about India’s interactions with Afghanistan. He believes that fostering some level of engagement may compel the Taliban to reform, despite its concerning behavior regarding women's rights. "The Taliban is fully in control. Letting the Taliban stew in its own juice won't help the Afghan people. Some engagement with the international community might urge the government toward better practices," he asserts.

Prasad further emphasizes the Taliban's desire for international recognition, which he believes hinges on internal reforms. "They understand that this recognition will only materialize after they demonstrate a commitment to reforms—such as reinstating women's rights in public life and allowing access to education, work, and political participation." Thus, the complexity of India's relationship with the Taliban is evolving, with both opportunities and challenges on the horizon.