The political landscape in Manipur has shifted dramatically with the National People's Party (NPP) led by Conrad Sangma deciding to withdraw its support for the BJP-led government. This decision comes amid escalating tensions and violence in the region, raising questions about the stability of the current administration. Although the NPP holds seven seats in the 60-member assembly, the BJP retains a majority with 32 seats, minimizing the immediate impact of this withdrawal. However, the political dynamics are undoubtedly in flux, with the Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA) previously pulling out their support as well. With ethnic conflicts continuing to plague Manipur and the ramifications of these withdrawals becoming evident, the situation remains precarious.
In a significant political upheaval, the National People's Party (NPP), guided by Conrad Sangma, has officially ceased its support for the ruling BJP government in Manipur. The decision stems from escalating concerns regarding the deteriorating law and order in the region. Currently, the NPP commands seven seats within the 60-member legislative assembly. Nevertheless, the ruling BJP, holding a substantial majority with 32 seats, is unlikely to face immediate destabilization as a result of this political shift.
Furthermore, the Kuki People's Alliance (KPA), which has two assembly seats, had earlier withdrawn its support from the Biren Singh administration in August 2023. Despite the cumulative loss of nine MLAs from its coalition, the BJP continues to hold a robust position in the assembly, sustaining its simple majority.
The BJP’s coalition remains fortified by additional allies, including Janata Dal (United) with six seats and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) possessing five seats. This alliance, along with the backing of three independent MLAs, continues to uphold BJP's governance, notwithstanding the evident fractures within their coalition.
The withdrawal of support from both NPP and KPA underscores escalating tensions within the ruling coalition; yet, it does not immediately hinder the BJP's governing capabilities. The political climate continues to be shaped by significant events across Manipur, particularly with growing concerns around ethnic violence.
As of now, the seat distribution in the Manipur Assembly is as follows:
- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 32 seats
- Naga People’s Front (NPF): 5 seats
- National People’s Party (NPP): 7 seats
- Janata Dal (United) [JDU]: 6 seats
- Indian National Congress (INC): 5 seats
- Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA): 2 seats
- Independents (IND): 3 seats
The continuing strife in Manipur is further underscored by recent violent incidents. The state remains rife with ethnically charged conflicts between the Meitei community, based in the Imphal Valley, and Kuki-Zo groups residing in nearby hilly areas. The violence has led to more than 200 fatalities and massive property damage, amounting to several crores since last May.
A surge in violence erupted recently, following protests responding to the tragic killings of three women and children by militants in the Jiribam district. In retaliation, furious crowds targeted the residences of several state ministers and MLAs, resulting in numerous homes, including those belonging to BJP and Congress representatives, being set ablaze.
By the subsequent morning, a tenuous calm returned to the five districts of the Imphal Valley, where a curfew had been implemented, alongside a suspension of internet services. On Sunday, police apprehended 23 individuals linked to the rampage against lawmakers' and ministers' homes, while many defied curfew orders to express outrage over the recent tragic events.
This recent unrest, marking its second consecutive day, has culminated in a standoff situation in Imphal, the capital of Manipur, with tensions continuing to simmer.
In a further escalation of hostilities, the body of a woman associated with a missing Meitei family was discovered in a river on Sunday, while earlier in the week, three other bodies, including two children, were found as well. The previous week also witnessed the horrifying incident of a 31-year-old woman from the Kuki community being burned alive, provoking widespread condemnation. Kuki groups have attributed this act to Meitei militants, exacerbating the existing rifts within the state.
The complexities surrounding the current political scenario in Manipur, combined with ongoing ethnic violence, make the future uncertain for the BJP-led government. While immediate threats to their majority seem mitigated, internal challenges and external pressures could yet reshape the political landscape in the near future.
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