Recent exit polls suggest that the Congress party is on track to form the new government in Haryana, marking a significant shift from the BJP's decade-long hold, while its partnership with the National Conference is expected to gain traction in Jammu and Kashmir, which may see a split mandate.
As per the latest exit poll results, Congress appears poised to take control of the Haryana assembly, ending the BJP's decade-long governance. Predictions suggest Congress may secure approximately 55 of the 90 assembly seats, comfortably surpassing the majority threshold of 45 seats. The exit polls reflect a significant turnaround for the party, consolidating their performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections.
Turning our attention to Jammu and Kashmir, also comprising 90 assembly seats following delimitation, the alliance between Congress and National Conference is projected to win 43 seats, just shy of a majority. In this fractured political landscape, the BJP is anticipated to secure around 26 seats, presenting challenges in forming a coalition government.
It’s crucial to recognize that exit polls can often be misleading. While they suggest a favorable outcome for Congress, previous elections have shown that projections may not always align with the final results. For instance, one poll anticipated the BJP could attain up to 37 seats, showcasing the varying predictions emerging from different sources.
Furthermore, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) may manage to secure two seats, while its former ally, the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), is expected to gain at least one seat in Haryana. The outcome for Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party appears bleak, with projections indicating they might not win any seats in Haryana, despite their governance in Delhi and Punjab.
The assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir mark the first in a decade, ushering in new political dynamics. The potential for a hung assembly raises interesting questions regarding coalition formations, particularly concerning the role of Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which is projected to secure about seven seats. The PDP has ruled out alliances with the BJP, opting instead for a secular coalition approach.
The possibility of collaboration between Congress and National Conference could hinge on historical rivalries, particularly between the National Conference and PDP, both vying for dominance in the Kashmir Valley. Mehbooba Mufti's recent offer suggests a willingness to step back from candidacy in favor of Congress and National Conference if they align with the PDP's long-standing agenda on Kashmir.
Future political maneuvers will be pivotal, especially in the context of the Gupkar alliance’s aspirations to restore statehood in Jammu and Kashmir. The ongoing rivalry has previously hindered collaboration between Congress and National Conference during the Lok Sabha elections, despite numerous overtures from Congress. As the vote counting approaches on October 8, the political narrative in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir is set to evolve significantly.
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