1. Monsoon's Arrival and Subsequent Pause After initially arriving on time in South India, the southwest monsoon unexpectedly halted, leaving the region parched. However, meteorologists predict a resurgence in rainfall activity due to a low-pressure trough extending from South Maharashtra to the Kerala coast.

2. Anticipated Rainfall Distribution From June 21 to 25, coastal districts of Kerala-Mahe and South Interior Karnataka are expected to receive isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall (64.5-204.4 mm). North Interior Karnataka, Puducherry, Karaikal, and Lakshadweep are also likely to experience heavy rains during this period.

3. Intensity Peaks on Sunday On June 23, Karnataka's Malabar coast and Kerala are bracing for extremely heavy rains exceeding 200 mm. The weather system will also bring thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph, heightening the risk of flooding, landslides, and damage to infrastructure.

4. Orange Alert and Precautionary Measures In anticipation of adverse weather conditions, an orange alert ('be prepared') has been issued for coastal Karnataka and Kerala from June 21 to 25, and for the rest of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu from June 22 to 25. Authorities advise taking necessary precautions to ensure safety.

5. Monsoon Performance and Regional Impact Despite fluctuations in rainfall, Kerala has experienced a shortfall of 49% since June 1, while Tamil Nadu boasts a surplus of 143.6%. Karnataka has seen a slight surplus, indicating varied monsoon patterns across South India.

Conclusion: With the IMD forecasting above-normal rainfall for the monsoon season, residents and authorities in Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and neighboring areas must remain vigilant. Stay tuned for updates as the weather situation evolves, and take proactive steps to mitigate potential risks posed by the impending heavy rains.